It’s worth reading Bostrom’s brief abstract in full: “I argue that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to become extinct before reaching a ‘posthuman’ stage (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of its evolutionary history (or variations thereof) (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. Scientific American cites the landmark 2003 paper “Are We Living in a Computer Simulation?” by philosopher Nick Bostrom. The 50/50 probability is rounded from a calculation whose outcome is more like 50.22222 to 49.77778. The coin flip depends a great deal on science we may uncover in the near future, they say. ![]() If real life in 2020 seems like just too much, take comfort in some breaking news: scientists say odds are even that we’re living in a simulation. The weighted Bayesian calculation has a lot of assumptions built in.Because the question is so big, many experts approach it from very different angles.Scientists and philosophers meet at the bleeding edge of simulation theory.
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